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What drives currencies
Interest rates
- The monetary policy is situated by Central Bank-Government-Nations realize that manipulating currencies does not work
- A benchmark interest rate is set via market operations.
- The difference between yields paid across currencies in part governs the appeal of each.
Inflation
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Rising prices wear down growth-it builds an illusion of faster growth
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Falling prices are not good for an economy-it’s difficult to prevent loss of confidence
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Concept of real interest rates (Nominal interest rate minus rate of inflation)
Growth
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Gross domestic products measure a country’s production.
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Depending on their risk appetite some investors seek rapid growth.
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It keeps currency demand floating.
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Countries that grow strongest tend to have a firmer currency
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It identifies a lot about export and import demand
Employment
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Rising employment is a sign of economic health
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Utilization accounts for 70% of US economy
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Wages are a key sign of growth trend
Other factors affecting the price fluctuation
Central bank bias
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Visit the official websites of central banks and read the notes of recent meetings
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These policy meetings directly address these issues and give out key metrics and hints as to what the next move might be
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You will hear individual bank members deliver speeches supporting these views
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Currency markets tend to trade numerous moves ahead and reward currencies supported by increasing rates.
Trade deficit
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Goods in – goods out generates a trade balance
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Too high imports creates an exodus of capital, which is bad for a currency
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To high imports can create domestic demand constraints and encourage inflation
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Investors punish nations with too high deficit since that currency needs to become less attractive to allow exports to compete
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Deficits habitually do not last forever